Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.517874 31.813856 35.603431 40.348933 46.231230 53.424609 63.124857
2025-06-22 23.508979 27.748350 33.133814 40.741641 51.714171 67.938996 96.168651
2025-06-29 20.266065 25.008190 31.545560 41.828009 59.060786 90.725170 169.882111
2025-07-06 18.057753 23.124755 30.620645 43.649331 69.151001 130.229314 414.012207
2025-07-13 15.859180 20.813452 28.502721 42.868350 74.683178 172.691844 1457.221728
2025-07-20 14.363997 19.273327 27.237788 43.197899 83.481865 255.147307 NaN
2025-07-27 13.184392 18.023017 26.176530 43.577634 93.516093 414.207916 NaN
2025-08-03 11.996915 16.588317 24.510529 42.120575 97.387344 614.161313 NaN
2025-08-10 11.250090 15.778365 23.828104 42.695484 109.812968 1480.277029 NaN
2025-08-17 10.626133 15.093961 23.253991 43.357183 124.684066 11434.535899 NaN
2025-08-24 10.067826 14.455772 22.658019 43.777882 140.533903 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.602249 13.928732 22.197983 44.440706 161.006334 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.067510 13.265581 21.441317 44.281585 180.294024 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 8.646507 12.777319 21.003833 45.079163 215.705524 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 8.306385 12.408509 20.779814 46.601129 276.082398 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 8.036686 12.146254 20.758626 48.951888 390.086282 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 7.634389 11.592475 19.977515 48.119026 444.537113 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 7.332455 11.208993 19.550203 48.590810 578.164942 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 7.060344 10.861121 19.160526 49.100896 789.021290 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 6.724162 10.360860 18.332510 47.362496 834.357692 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 6.511542 10.093068 18.054780 48.080903 1271.641081 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 6.319165 9.851380 17.811677 48.900094 2282.074852 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 6.131454 9.605514 17.526825 49.422507 5033.004749 NaN NaN